Andrew Bell Market Update 2026 | Issue 11
Hi Andrew Bell with you once again.
Heavens above. It’s been a very busy start to the year, hasn’t it?
We’ve now seen three interest rate rises, with the latest prediction suggesting we may only need one more rise to rein in the current inflation trend.
We then had the outbreak of war in the Middle East, and the real issue flowing from that, of course, was the oil supply and the impact on inflation from a shortage with price increases right across the board. Hopefully we’re getting close to the resolution of that issue, but it will take some time for the inflationary effects caused by higher oil prices to work their way through the economy.
We then have the federal government’s changes to taxation in relation to negative gearing and capital gains tax.
It’s no surprise that the cumulative effect of all of these events, and particularly the most recent taxation changes, has caused a great deal of concern about what lies ahead for the Australian economy.
I’ve had many people reaching out to my views on how the real estate market will affect these, or be affected by these changes in taxation.
I’ve deliberately allowed the dust to settle first. Much of what’s been commentary so far to date simply focused on what the changes are, and very little genuine analysis about the likely impact they will have on the real estate market.
Now, having spent more than 50 years in the industry and lived through many market upheavals, including the last time negative gearing was eliminated, I do have some very clear views on the likely consequences of these changes.
I’m currently finalizing a detailed analysis, which I’ll be sharing through a number of forums, including the Australian Investor magazine, buyer blogs, podcasts, and other media outlets. But I wanted to share it with you first, which I’ll do over the next two ENews additions, one devoted to the negative gearing effects and the other one to the capital gains.
Today I simply want to touch on some of the knee jerk reactions. The initial reactions.
The Ray White group, which is the largest real estate company in the country, has seen a reduction in the number of properties coming to the market. Potentially, this reflects people sitting on their hands while they wait for a better understanding of all the changes. But there’s also likely to be a percentage of people saying, I’ve got a good investment property now I’m going to hold on to it and preserve the grandfathering effects, the benefits that come from that investment.
Whatever the case, 461 properties did go to auction nationally last Saturday through the Ray White group, recording a clearance of 58.7%.
Across the country Ray White auctions averaged 2.7 registered bidders and 1.9 active bidders per property.
Of course, there are no comparable figures for private treaty sales, as those statistics simply aren’t tracked in the same way. However, we know private treaties generally achieve lower success rates and longer days on market auction results therefore tend to reflect the stronger segment of the market.
So yes, sales success rates are down, but at this stage there is no evidence of any significant downward pressure on prices.
Along with ongoing imbalance between population growth and housing supply. We continue to see strong monthly population increases while the high construction costs are restricting the delivery of new housing. The result is that every month we are seeing more people wanting to buy property while the supply of available homes continues to tighten.
That will continue to provide a level of support in the marketplace.
Certainly the days of sellers expecting ever rising prices based on what sold down the street last week appear to have passed. I would expect to see a plateauing of prices, which in turn may encourage more buyers back into the marketplace as competition eases somewhat.
At this stage, I can’t see too many additional surprises ahead.
We’re also entering the normal end of financial year period, where it is common to see a slowdown in the month of June. However, July traditionally sees an increase in sales activity as many people who have been subject to tax implications choose to defer the sale of their property into the new financial year.
Here on the Gold Coast, we also experience an increase in buyers during July, as many people from the southern states travel north during the mid-year school holiday period to escape the cooler months. There is always plenty of buyers amongst that group.
I should also remind everyone that we have our Mid Year Event. It’s the biggest sort of auction in the middle of the year. It’s a great way if you’re thinking about selling your property and get ahead of whatever changes might work their way through the system down the track. So reach out to us now to book in. The auction is actually in July, but we do start marketing towards the middle of June, so give us a contact.
Meanwhile, I look forward to sharing some much deeper insights with you in my next ENews regarding the true consequences of the changes to negative gearing.
Also, I’m about to release my new podcast series, beginning with an interview with former Prime Minister John Howard, a man regarded by many as one of Australia’s greatest prime minister. It was a fantastic interview, and if you’d like to receive access to that interview, simply reply to this email and we will ensure you added to the release list.
That’s it for now. Warmest regards for now, and let’s not allow all the negativity in the first half of the year to overshadow the fact that we live in a wonderful part of the world. Far removed from much of the turmoil and instability occurring elsewhere. We remain fortunate to live in one of the safest and most prosperous and most desirable countries in the world.
Until next time. See you then.
