Andrew Bell Market Update 2026 | Issue 17
Hi, Andrew Bell with you once again.
Well, here we are, only two weeks away from the official start of spring. You know, with 37 winters under my belt here on the Gold Coast, I rate this one as one of the mildest we’ve ever had. And hasn’t the weather in the last couple of weeks just been spectacular.
Now, in regards to the real estate market, we’ve seen the media doing its normal thing, focusing heavily on weekly results rather than looking at the causes behind them. So rather than getting caught up in the week to week numbers, I want to have a look at the bigger picture and the fundamentals driving the market.
A couple of weeks ago, I talked about the five fundamentals that we should always keep watching. The health of the economy, unemployment, interest rates, population growth, and consumer confidence.
On the economic front, while the government has highlighted the number of new companies being established. Most people believe that these were really new structures created as a result of the changes to capital gains tax, rather than genuine new businesses.
Speak to most businesses and they’ll tell you activity has slowed, definitely has.
Unemployment figures are currently holding, although we are somewhat advised that there is some increase that’s starting to show. What I’m seeing with businesses around town is that they are actually reducing staff numbers wherever possible, so I think we might see some movement in that soon.
Interest rates are another major factor. We’ve already seen three increases this year. Whilst we don’t expect another immediately. Inflation remains a concern, particularly with the high petrol prices flowing through from the conflict in the Middle East. And so some commentators predicting no more rises. Others are even talking about a reduction before the end of the year. But the smart money seems to be hovering around the fact there will be no further change in interest rates in 2026. And if ever there was a risk. The risk is of a slight increase.
Populations also slowed significantly or the growth in it. I’ll cover that along with overseas investment in a future report not too far away. But the reality is immigration is being wound back. That should gradually reduce demand for new housing as construction catches up with the population growth over a long period.
And then we have consumer confidence now that’s fallen to some of the lowest levels since records began. And I believe that this is one of the real key factors currently slowing the property market.
Now, this is the eighth real estate cycle I’ve been through, and I’ve never seen so many factors creating negative sentiment amongst consumers in such a short period of time, not just towards property, but towards big ticket purchases generally. Add significant cost of living pressures, higher interest rates and the conflict in the Middle East and changes to taxation, including, of course, negative gearing, capital gains tax. And you can understand why people are sitting on their hands and trying to work out what happens next, how will this affect me?
All of this came as we entered winter, traditionally a slower period for real estate. So while everyone’s talking about weekly numbers, I encourage you to keep your eye on the bigger picture.
A slowdown in the property market was needed. What we don’t need is a major price correction, because that would have a significant impact on people who have bought over the last couple of years. Some adjustment is inevitable, but governments have most of the levers to influence where the market goes from here. They just perhaps won’t want to take responsibility.
Now of course, population growth is a big one at the moment. And it’s kind of good to see it’s slowing. But we have to balance that against a huge shortage of skilled workers across many sectors, particularly construction. If we can’t fill those positions from overseas, we risk slowing the economy further. So this whole immigration policy is going to need some very careful balancing.
Now, the good news is that we’re starting to see the latest Ray White statistics show some interesting trends.
Now of course, Ray White is the largest real estate company in Australasia with more open homes, more auctions, selling more property than anybody else. And we have a significant research team headed by Nerida Conisbee, one of Australia’s most quoted and sought after real estate economists. I recently actually recorded a podcast with Nerida, which we’ll include a link to in this report if you’d like to see her insights.
Now the latest statistics are showing a significant improvement just recently over June and July. Perhaps that’s an early sign that spring will be a stronger period, as people gain greater clarity around the changes that have been occurring, and how it affects them.
Most importantly, from what we’re hearing in our office, buyers are recognizing that now’s a very good time to buy. Prices have corrected a little bit, but competition is lower than it was creating a better buying environment.
Some banks have also been adjusting their variable rates to be more competitive. If you’d like more information on finance, reach out to Lauren Hall. One of the Australians leading finance brokers.
But the reality on the Gold Coast remains the same. Demand for real estate still exceeds supply. There’s no shortage of buyers in the marketplace, just the prices they’re prepared to pay.
Building costs have gone up 51% since 2019, making building new homes not the answer to our housing issues. We just simply can’t build cheap alternatives to the resale market. And so that demand in that resale market will continue.
I think we’ve just seen somewhat of a pause and a bit of a slowdown Some of that information coming through the Ray White research is showing and we see it here definitely on the Gold Coast.
There’s not a lack of buyers. There is. They’re just not paying the prices they were. And so let’s not kid ourselves that there’s no interest or there’s no demand for properties. There is.
And of course, what we’ve got to make sure that in this sort of market you advertise and market your property a little more extensively.
From our own offices, figures and perspective, we’re not seeing a shortage of buyers. We’re seeing buyers who are no longer prepared to pay the prices that they were paying 3 or 4 months ago.
We expect some further softening, but certainly not a bloodbath like the Gold Coast might have experienced in previous downturns. In fact, I think it will be one of the standout markets.
Ray White’s been through many cycles in its 124 year history, and Greg and I personally experienced eight of them. That experience is incredibly valuable in markets like this, because knowing how to operate in changing market conditions can make a significant difference to the price you achieve as a seller.
So if you have a Gold Coast property and you’re thinking about selling our major spring marketing campaign is about to commence. Reach out to us 1800 198 009 and take advantage of what is traditionally one of the strongest selling seasons of the year, year in, year out.
Don’t be put off by negativity in the media. The market is changing, but it’s nowhere near as bad as some of the commentary would suggest. And the old saying make hay while the sun shines always applies because we never know what’s around the corner.
Finally, hope you made it to our fabulous Gold Coast’s Next Top Dogel competition at Sanctuary Cove last weekend. It was another wonderful community event, and we’re incredibly proud of the work our team does in supporting the Gold Coast. Through our many community activities we’ve now raised over 5.5 million for our local community.
I’ll be back with you in a fortnight’s time and plenty of more news.
