Andrew Bell Market Update 2026 | Issue 19
Hi. Andrew Bell with you.
I’m sure it’s no surprise to you that I’m asked more than once a day what’s happening in the real estate market? What’s the road ahead?
As I’ve said in earlier market reports, my 50 plus years in the industry absolutely confirms that the real estate market and in fact, the economy, the stock market and all types of financial markets move in cycles and they’re usually somewhat interlinked.
All markets over the past five years have had a tremendous period of growth. Car sales, boat sales, caravan sales, jewelry sales and of course, real estate were all driven by the pandemic, with more than $1 trillion pumped into our economy, record low interest rates and stimulus’ everywhere you looked.
No surprise, we have one of the longest and largest real estate booms in the country’s history, along with tremendous growth across so many other commercial enterprises.
For those who follow cycles, the writing was on the wall an upward swing phase will always come to an end. Always has and always will. The only question is when and what will trigger it?
Well, we now know it started happening post-Christmas 2025. And the final blow to that boom period was the budget announcement earlier this year.
Markets are driven fundamentally by consumer confidence in the upswing. Low interest rates, plenty of money being splashed around and seeing everyone else doing well gave people the confidence to get out, spend and invest.
But by the end of 2025, we became alarmed that inflation was rising when we thought it was under control.
And then early in this year, we saw three quick interest rate rises on top of it, rapidly rising costs of living that eroded consumer confidence.
And then when the budget was announced in May, it just completely eroded confidence.
So here we are with the newspapers and the electronic media, full of negativity, picking up the smallest little story about a property or some suburb or some town.
Often we have very young and inexperienced journalists writing stories about the real estate market, picking up on one little bit of information without really understanding how it fits into the broader cycle.
Bottom line, the Reserve Bank is doing what it was meant to do. Although we all question whether they leave their actions too late, causing unnecessary jumps in interest rates and keeping them higher for longer than necessary. But whatever the case. They’ve played their part in slowing down the real estate market to get inflation back under 3%, and we’ve still got a way to go.
The government completely mistimed the budget announcement and absolutely pulled the rug from under markets.
So whatever’s happening now is that people are simply trying to get their heads around those changes and what it means for them. Lack of confidence.
The cycle tells us that we will be in a correction phase for perhaps 12 to 18 months. That’s not a big period when you consider we had a boom that lasted five years. There’ll be some give back on pricing, and that’ll vary from area to area.
And the people who will be hurt the most are those who bought in the last year or two, but only if they sell. And for those who don’t. It’s simply disappointing to think that some of our assets, may be 5 or 10% or more or less than they were at the peak of the market.
But after we pass through the correction phase, there was a period of flatlining where the market will neither go back nor go forward. It’s not the end of the world.
And the only thing that we have to be careful of is a wild card. We had one of those back in 2007, when the global financial crisis occurred. For those who remember that going back 19 odd years ago, it certainly hurt and stayed around for a long time.
And just as we’ve experienced a long boom period in the economy, events like that can result in a much longer correction phase. Time will tell.
I’ve had the blessing of being able to attend some private briefings with a number of our leading economists in Australia, and I have another one coming up with Macquarie Bank very shortly. So I’ll have more to share with you about what the road ahead looks like as I finish those briefings.
Meanwhile, let’s appreciate that we live in one of the best countries in the world. Whilst there are plenty of things that we see that can be improved here in Australia, there’s nowhere else that’s better to live.
Also, it’s just a month out from our famous BELLissimo charity lunch at The Mondrian hotel. All of the tables are sold out, but we still have our pool club area where you can come along in whatever numbers that suits you, whether on your own. Two, three, five people enjoy the chef pop up stations and a chilled seafood selection. Great way to enjoy the day.
We’ll also be announcing the first of our research grants, which is particularly significant after all the years of fundraising to fight this muscular dystrophy. Through those years, we’ve raised more than 4 million. And to be able to start giving out research grants is such a thrill.
Now, our next market report will be particularly fascinating where I’ll give you some insights into what’s happening. Since the budget announcement, fascinating figures, which I certainly want to make sure that you’re fully aware of.
Until then, see you in a fortnight’s time.
