Andrew Bell Market Update 2026 | Issue 15
Hi, Andrew Bell here.
Now, over the past few market insights, we’ve tackled some fairly big issues, and in particular the recent changes to the taxation relating to property and in fact, all forms of investment. We’ve also looked at key indicators that are likely to impact on the real estate market moving forward.
I do thank so many people who have reached out with appreciation of what I hope has been a contextual understanding of these changes, making it easier to understand the impacts on the real estate market, in particular how they affect each person’s own circumstances.
In the next report in a fortnight’s time I’ll be looking at the latest Gold Coast City Council state of the city report, which is quite fascinating and shows why the Gold Coast is in a fairly unique position within the Australian property market.
But for today, much of the feedback I’ve been receiving suggests that people are keen to know exactly where the market is at this very present time.
So here’s some interesting points.
Firstly, its traditional for there to be a mid-year slowdown. Much of that is caused by the end of the financial year and the impact it has, with many people not wanting to sell in the previous financial year for tax reasons, and some buyers not wanting to buy in the previous financial year. As a result, June is traditionally a slower month, and that can confuse the statistics and reports of market activity.
However, there’s no mistaking the first half of this year has been a very challenging period for many people as they’ve tried to understand the impacts of the outbreak of inflation. Three interest rate rises a war in the Middle East and its impact on the cost of living, and finally changes to taxation. All of these factors have impacted each and every one of us. Naturally, they’ve had the effect of causing many people to simply sit on their hands while trying to understand what was happening.
There have been many reports about the decline in auction success rates, but those reports never tell the whole story. There’s no question that the volume of people attending open homes has declined right across the market. However, the average number of bidders at auction has actually not declined significantly over the past few months. The bidders are still there, but they have a different approach to the market. That fear of missing out, which drove prices higher over the recent years, has definitely dissipated. Today, buyers are much more concerned about overpaying.
So the reason we’re hearing that auction success rates have declined is not from a lack of buyer interest or buyer activity. Rather, it’s because a gap has opened up between what a seller would like to receive and what the buyers are prepared to pay.
What the statistics never show are two very significant factors. The first is the overall success rate of sales. Once you include post auction sales. Quite often, that gap between what a seller wants and what a buyer is prepared to pay is closed post auction through negotiations immediately after the auction, perhaps within a week or certainly within the next couple of weeks. When you include those statistics, the overall success rate is much higher than the initial figures that are quoted.
And so the reality is that there is still high volumes of sales taking place, just not at the prices that were being achieved in the closing months of last year and earlier this year. That is clearly the intention of higher interest rates, and was always going to be a natural feature of a market that simply cannot continue to grow at 20% per annum, year in and year out indefinitely.
Now, the second factor that’s never publicized is the success rate of the alternative method of sale, which is private treaty. The success rate of private treaty sales has always been lower than the success rate at auctions. Without that measure, there is no proper comparison between auction and private treaty or a complete analysis of the real estate market. The closest measure we get is the total number of sales, but those figures don’t become available to many months after the actual month we’re recording.
So don’t be misled into believing that the auction success rate under the hammer is a true barometer of the real estate market. Far from it.
There are lots of other interesting stats that are starting to come through. What is becoming very clear is that there is no uniformity in what’s happening in the real estate market throughout the country. Markets like Sydney and Melbourne are slowing significantly and have seen substantial price falls, whilst markets like Western Australia and Queensland continue to be the leaders in real estate activity. Then within every marketplace there are different results depending on price brackets, types of properties and so on.
For example, here on the Gold Coast, the more expensive suburbs are showing weaker growth. Surfers Paradise North as it’s referred to, which is essentially Main Beach marketplace, has seen price growth of just 3.6% over the past year. Compare that with more affordable suburbs such as those in the northern corridors and in particular Pimpama, which recorded growth of 15.9% over that same period.
What’s becoming a real sleeper in the real estate market at present is affordability. It’s a measure that always attracts a lot of conjecture. But the Real Estate Institute of Australia’s latest Housing Affordability report reveals that there isn’t a single state or territory where the cost of servicing a mortgage is below the traditional level of 30% of household income.
For mortgage stress, the recent interest rate rises have certainly had an impact. The report indicates that in dollar terms, on an average loan of $734,881, the average mortgage holder is now paying $5,972 per month. That’s an increase of more than 600 per month compared to a year ago. And that figure wasn’t even capturing the third interest rate increase that occurred in May.
Housing affordability is certainly having a major impact on the real estate market and when combined with the continuing rise in the cost of living, becomes a real double whammy for mortgage holders. Not only are they facing higher interest payments, but they’re also dealing with the substantially higher day to day living costs.
So it was inevitable that after five years of sustained price growth, the party was eventually going to come to an end. We know that the end of any strong market property cycle doesn’t simply result in prices plateauing. There’s almost always some level of price correction, and that’s the phase of the market we’re in now.
However I still believe the Gold Coast is likely to be one of the best performing markets in Australia. I’ll explain why in much greater detail in my next report. When I look at the findings from the state of the city report.
A point I’d like to make, because I think it’s one that is easily overlooked, is that we focus on issues such as taxation changes, interest rate rises, and affordability. But there’s another piece of data that’s quietly emerging.
The Property Council of Australia has reported that the Gold Coast delivered fewer than 2,500 new apartments and townhouses during 2025. That represented a 6% decline on 2024 and equated to around 2,850 fewer dwellings than had originally been forecast for.
There’s also a growing concern that many of the projects currently approved have an increasing risk of stalling, as labor shortages and project feasibility challenges continue to bite. We know nationally, there is a shortage of something like 83,000 tradespeople throughout the country. With infrastructure spending continuing to ramp up ahead of the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games, there is likely to be an enormous drift of construction workers towards government infrastructure projects that will make it even harder for many private developments to commence.
The result is likely to be significantly less new housing supply coming onto the market over the next few years, so that balance is up with some of the negatives. To me, that’s a real sleeper issue. It’s one that many people are simply not factoring into how they see the real estate market shaping up over the next year or two.
Now, just two quick general points before I finish.
The first is that the new anti-money laundering legislation is now in place as of the 1st of July, just passed. For sellers in particular, be prepared to provide information we’ve never had to ask for before. The good news is that the process is not particularly onerous. It’s intended for the greater good, namely, helping stamp out illicit proceeds of crime and ensuring that everyone pays their fair share of tax. Whatever your personal views may be. The legislation is now in place. It must be complied with and thankfully it’s a reasonably straightforward process. There’s simply no escaping it.
The second point is that we’re just about sold out of tables for this year’s spectacular BELLissimo charity lunch happening on Friday 16th of October at the incredible Mondrian Gold Coast. It really is what Gold Coasters do so well. A fantastic Friday afternoon networking event, whilst raising much needed funds for Muscular Dystrophy. So don’t miss out. Book now before the remaining tickets are gone and come along, and be part of something truly special as we continue to raise funds to fight this dreaded disease.
Well, back with you in a fortnight’s time. We’ll be preparing for what we believe will be a much more active spring season as people continue to get their heads around what’s happening in the real estate market. Ultimately, the core driver of real estate remains unchanged, and the demand for a roof over the people’s heads. That demand continues to be met by an undersupply of properties for sale, and we believe that will continue to support the Gold Coast property market moving forward, albeit a much more tempered rate than we’ve experienced in recent years.
Be with you in a fortnight’s time.
